Concluding the first three months of the year, ceasefire violation reports continue to show conflicting figures. Official ceasefire violation cases are published by the Ministries of Defence of both Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh, nonetheless there continues to be a discrepancy between the two figures.
Official reports from military authorities in Stepanakert show little difference in ceasefire violation cases in the first three months of 2018 and 2019. In the first three months of 2019, Armenian authorities reported a total of 2.945 ceasefire violation reports, mainly by small arms fire, with an exception of 60 mm mortar shells being fired on 13 March near military positions in Aghdam; Armenian military authorities reported a total of 9 mortar shells being fired by Azeri forces that day.
Official Armenian figures comparing figures from 2018 and 2019
Azeri military authorities on the other hand have reported far less ceasefire violations this year compared with figures in 2018. The first three months of 2019 registered a total of 2.406 violations by Armenian forces, mainly by small arms fire, occasionally with larger-calibre rounds being fired (most likely 12,7mm shells from Armenian Kord long-range machine guns). Compared with the 2.406 violations reported this year, the first three months of 2018 reported a total of 11.031 ceasefire violations, with an average of 113 per day, compared with 24 in 2019.
Official Azeri figures comparing figures from 2018 and 2019
No official explanation has been provided for the discrepancy by either side. It is worth noting that deaths from ceasefire violations are far less this year compared with the previous years, with the latest one being Azeri conscript Allaz Allazov on 26 March.
Azeri reports of ceasefire violations started decreasing from 02 October 2018, just days after a non-official meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Dushambe. Tension on the line-of-contact still continues, with strong rhetoric from both sides being periodically expressed.
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