According to the latest ceasefire violation reports on the line-of-contact between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan, discrepancies continue to exist between the figures published by the military authorities of both sides.
According to the Azeri military authorities, there were 716 violations by the Armenian side during the month of April, down significantly from 2.873 during the same period last year. Daily violation reports showed the 01 and 25 April with the highest numbers, 30 for each day, while the lowest days were 10 and 16 April, with 20 violation reports respectively. Since the start of the year, reported ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan have averaged 24 per day, compared to 110 per day for the first four months of last year.
Reported ceasefire violations for April 2019 as reported by Azerbaijan
*Source: Azerbaijan Defence Ministry
According to ceasefire violation reports by Nagorno Karabakh, daily averages this year are lower than those of last year, although still significantly higher than numbers reported by the Azeri side. In the first four months of 2019 approximately 4.800 violations were reported, while the same time period in 2018 saw approximately 6.200. Ceasefire violation reports from military authorities in Nagorno Karabakh show a monthly rise from approximately 211 daily violations in January to 371 in April.
Average daily ceasefire violations in the first four months of 2019 compared with 2018
as reported by the Nagorno Karabakh Defence Ministry
*Source: Nagorno Karabakh Defence Ministry
The discrepancies in the numbers reported by the two sides remain unexplained, although the main change has come from Azerbaijan reporting 50% less since 02 October 2018, when the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan briefly met in Dushambe, Tajikistan. This last hypothesis points to a political motive for reporting less ceasefire violations. Another explanation could be a new classification for the term ceasefire violation, or simply a new way of measuring such incidents. While Baku’s numbers seem to have changed, consistency in Sepanakert has not. Violation reports from the latter show a continuation from the previous years, without major changes except a slight decrease.
Nagorno Karabakh Observer experts will continue to monitor events on the line-of-contact and its surroundings, for further reports later down the road.